A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
